When I was five years old, my Dad took my Mother and I to Jamaica. It was my first trip anywhere, and it was paradise. My Dad wore a gold nugget Rolex, and carried literally thousands of dollars in cash in his front pocket. He bought my Mother a diamond that made every woman jealous, and we were rich. And then oil went to $10 and the nearly 5,000 rigs that were drilling in the US went to 1100. We were broke, and although my Dad didn’t sell his gold nugget Rolex, he had me put it in the floor safe of the home we lived in on Cornett. Since then, I’ve lived through my own oil boom and bust, and likely will see a few more. My skin grows thicker by the minute.
What I find entertaining are the theories manufactured in an effort to explain the feast or famine nature of the O&G life. Supply, demand, dictators, war, cold winters, WMDs, bailouts, etc. You name it, I’ve heard it, and if you’re in the O&G, you can add a few descriptors yourself I’m sure. The point is, no one knows if and or when any or all of these influencers will drive the price of oil up or down; one can only speculate. However, and as silly as it sounds, anyone can predict two things; it will go up, and it will go down. The key is being right. Rarely is anyone right, or at least consistently right. If and when you are right, everyone loves you, but the minute you’re wrong, the booing begins.
You’d think that by now, someone really smart would have figured out a way to strike a balance between growth and sustainability, but for the most part, the only companies that can stay steady are the ones that have figured out how to make hay, and sit on it. The small guys not so much, which is why so many get washed away in the huge swells of the O&G storms.
But before you think this is a doom and gloom piece, it’s not. I happen to be one of those that have grown to appreciate the volatility of the industry. The older I get, the more I realize that it’s all about how you play the game. The price of oil will be $150 before long. No, I can’t tell you when or why, but I can tell you it will be sooner than later. Why, because the World needs it badly, and the swings typically don’t last. And, although I’m a supporter of alternative energy, we’re likely a hundred years away or more from replacing oil and gas as the primary energy source.
So, instead of worrying about how many rigs are being stacked, how low the price of oil will go, or whether you’re the next to be let go; focus on doing your job, servicing your customer, and getting your house in order, because before long, the World will give us a reason to be excited once again.
Oh, and if you happen to have a nugget Rolex, they’re back in, so wear it proudly. You know who you are.
3 thoughts on “Bottoms Up – Why Oil is Going to $150”
Great post Dan, also a great way to develop the younger generations on how our great industry works. Have a Merry Christmas , Lannie
Great piece Daniel